Rate outlook

Mortgage rate forecast

Here's how we think about rates over the next few years, what we're confident about and what we're not.

No credit check, and no commitment.

Today's 5-year fixed

Featured rate
4.09%
4.14%
Payment on $500,000
$2,655
You’d be qualified at
6.09%
Rate hold
120 days

Rates as of September 21, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. MT

More than 24 hours old

Prime 4.45% · policy rate 2.25% (held September 2, 2026)

Compare it with our other published rates

We calculate every payment ourselves, on $500,000 over 25 years. The qualifying column is the greater of the contract rate plus 2 percentage points or 5.25%.

15 rates

  • 10 year fixed

    uninsured
    5.09%
    5.14%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,934
    You’d qualify at
    7.09%
    Hold this rate
  • 5 year fixed

    insured
    3.89%
    3.94%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,600
    You’d qualify at
    5.89%
    Hold this rate
  • 5 year fixed

    insurable
    3.99%
    4.04%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,627
    You’d qualify at
    5.99%
    Hold this rate
  • 5 year fixed

    uninsured
    4.09%
    4.14%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,655
    You’d qualify at
    6.09%
    Hold this rate
  • 5 year variable

    insured
    3.55%
    3.60%

    Prime − 0.90%

    Payment on $500,000
    $2,517
    You’d qualify at
    5.55%
    Hold this rate
  • 5 year variable

    uninsured
    4.20%
    4.25%

    Prime − 0.25%

    Payment on $500,000
    $2,695
    You’d qualify at
    6.20%
    Hold this rate
  • 4 year fixed

    insured
    3.94%
    3.99%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,614
    You’d qualify at
    5.94%
    Hold this rate
  • 4 year fixed

    uninsured
    4.19%
    4.24%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,682
    You’d qualify at
    6.19%
    Hold this rate
  • 3 year fixed

    insured
    3.79%
    3.84%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,574
    You’d qualify at
    5.79%
    Hold this rate
  • 3 year fixed

    uninsured
    4.04%
    4.09%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,641
    You’d qualify at
    6.04%
    Hold this rate
  • 2 year fixed

    insured
    4.24%
    4.29%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,696
    You’d qualify at
    6.24%
    Hold this rate
  • 2 year fixed

    uninsured
    4.49%
    4.54%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,765
    You’d qualify at
    6.49%
    Hold this rate
  • 1 year fixed

    insured
    4.74%
    4.79%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,834
    You’d qualify at
    6.74%
    Hold this rate
  • 1 year fixed

    uninsured
    4.99%
    5.04%
    Payment on $500,000
    $2,905
    You’d qualify at
    6.99%
    Hold this rate
  • HELOC

    uninsured
    5.95%
    5.95%

    Prime + 1.50%

    Payment on $500,000
    —
    You’d qualify at
    7.95%
    Hold this rate

What we can say about rates now

A pause in the policy rate doesn't tell you where rates will go next. Look at the latest verified Bank of Canada decision, current lender offers and the range of payments your budget can handle.

Fixed rates will move with the bond market, which will move with inflation data and with what happens in the US. We don't know what those will do, and neither does anyone else. The forecasters who were most confident in 2021 were also the most wrong.

How to choose a term without a forecast

Answer these 3 questions instead. How likely are you to break this mortgage before the term ends? What would a 2-point rise in your rate at renewal do to your household? And how much is certainty costing you today, in the gap between the fixed and variable rates on this page?

Your answers lead to a decision you can defend under any rate path. A decision based on a forecast only works if the forecast turns out to be right.

  • If you're likely to move or refinance during the term, the exit cost matters more than the rate.
  • If a 2-point rise would hurt, take the certainty of a fixed rate.
  • If the gap between fixed and variable is wide, you're being paid to take the risk. Decide whether that's worth it to you.

What we publish and what we don't

A useful forecast starts with dated, verified rate data and shows what happens to your payment under several paths. Our published rate board and historical chart will appear only once their underlying figures have been verified.

We don't publish a point forecast for the 5-year fixed. A number would make this page more clickable without making it more useful. If you'd like our view on your own decision, ask Daniel. He can talk through your file in a way a published number can't.

Get an email when this rate moves

Pick a target and we’ll email you when our published rate reaches it, or every time it changes. Daniel can also check what lenders are charging today for a file like yours. Renewing? Plan your renewal

Set a rate alert

Today’s 5-year fixed, uninsured rate is 4.09% (4.14% APR), as of September 21, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. MT. We’ll email you when it moves.

Email me

Today it's 4.09%. We'll email you when it's at or below your target.

Rate alert emails

We check once a day after we publish rates and send at most one email per move. We use your email only for these alerts. See our Privacy Policy.

Rate history

Rate history from verified snapshots only

This chart uses our own published rate board, month by month. None of those monthly snapshots has been approved for publication yet, so the chart stays empty until one is. Ask Daniel for current offers and the history behind them.

Policy rate

Bank of Canada and prime

Variable rates move with your lender's prime rate, and prime moves with the Bank of Canada's policy rate. Fixed rates follow the bond market instead, which usually moves first.

When the Bank holds, variable payments stay where they are. A cut lowers a variable payment. On a fixed-payment variable product, the payment stays the same and more of it goes to principal. Neither changes a fixed rate you’ve already signed. If you’re within 120 days of a renewal, keep an eye on these announcement dates.

2.25%
4.45%
October 28, 2026

Questions about these rates

Will mortgage rates go down in 2027?
Should I wait for rates to drop before I buy?
Why do brokers publish forecasts at all?

Sharp rates. The full picture.

Get this rate priced for your file

It's 6 questions and takes about two minutes, with no credit check to start. Daniel will come back with the rate your file prices at and its monthly payment.

No credit check, and no commitment.